Three matches in a week will reveal whether the Proteas are serious contenders for the World Cup, or if their early form was yet another false dawn, writes RYAN VREDE.
Outside of their embarrassing defeat to the Netherlands, the Proteas have been incredibly impressive in India.
They’ve given themselves breathing room in the top four, sitting two wins better than the fifth-placed Pakistan, with four matches to play. Their net run-rate is significantly better than anyone else’s, which further amplifies their chances of making the semi-finals.
The next week will shape their future at the tournament, and reveal where they’re placed in the hierarchy of potential champions.
Their opponents on Friday, Pakistan, haven’t won since their opening fixture in the tournament, against Sri Lanka. They were, however, the top-ranked ODI team until a month before the World Cup.
They have a clutch of players who are struggling for form, and a bowling attack that has conceded 286 (Afghanistan), 367 (Australia), 344 (Sri Lanka), while India chased down 192 with eight wickets in the bank.
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They play in Chennai, where the deck has been one of the harder to score on, and certainly won’t be the batting gift the Wankhede was for the Proteas in their last two matches. Even then, they should be able to pressure a Pakistan attack short of world-class bowlers and have enough in their ranks to exploit a gifted but inconsistent batting side.
The measure of the Proteas is more likely to come against New Zealand next Wednesday, and India next Sunday.
The hosts are unbeaten, having lost just 13 wickets in their five matches, all of which they’ve chased. In this context, the toss takes on extra significance, given that the Proteas have excelled batting first – posting scores of 428, 311, 399 and 382.
India are, statistically, the most complete side in the tournament, with their run-scoring prowess supported by a bowling attack that has holders and strikers in equal measure. They are the benchmark against which the Proteas must measure themselves.
The Black Caps are not far behind. They came into the tournament under the radar, but have subsequently announced their intent with four comprehensive victories in five matches.
Like India, their balance is a key strength, while their experience in setting a score (thrice) and chasing (twice) gives them an edge over South Africa and India.
The Proteas are likely to only need to win two of their next three fixtures to bank a spot in the playoffs. However, they’d be keen to avoid finishing fourth, in which case they’d avoid the top-ranked team post the league phase. To end top they’re likely to have to win all their remaining fixtures (their final one is against Afghanistan in a week). In this case, they’d play the fourth-placed team, likely to be Australia or Pakistan, in a semi-final.
Considering that at the start of the year, the Proteas faced the prospect of not qualifying for the showpiece tournament, and the fact they are in the infancy of their development under coach Rob Walter, making the semi-finals would represent an overachievement.
However, they appear to have found a method that works for them, have a clear tactical identity, and are ahead of their expected development schedule. Missing the playoffs from the position they currently find themselves in would be a great disappointment.
The next week will shape their future, and tell us just how close or far the Proteas are from being considered credible candidates to win the tournament.
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Photo: Pankaj Nangia/Gallo Images
